Tim Ferriss: Bestselling Author

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#691: Nassim N. Taleb & Scott Patterson — How Traders Make Billions in The New Age of Crisis, Defending Against Silent Risks, Personal Independence, Skepticism Where It (Really) Counts, The Bishop and The Economist, and Much More

The Tim Ferriss Show

Tim Ferriss is a self-experimenter and bestselling author, best known for The 4-Hour Workweek, which has been translated into 40+ languages. Newsweek calls him "the world's best human guinea pig," and The New York Times calls him "a cross between Jack Welch and a Buddhist monk." In this show, he deconstructs world-class performers from eclectic areas (investing, chess, pro sports, etc.), digging deep to find the tools, tactics, and tricks that listeners can use.

Brought to you by <a href="https://drinkag1.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">AG1</a> all-in-one nutritional supplement, <a href="https://helixsleep.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Helix Sleep</a> premium mattresses, and <a href="https://linkedin.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">LinkedIn Jobs</a> recruitment platform with 900M+ users. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (<a href="https://twitter.com/nntaleb" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@nntaleb</a>) spent 21 years as a risk-taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a researcher in philosophical, mathematical, and (mostly) practical problems with probability.Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay, the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Incerto-Fooled-Randomness-Procrustes-Antifragile/dp/059324365X/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Incerto</a> (<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">The Black Swan</a>, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Fooled by Randomness</a>, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Antifragile-Things-That-Disorder-Incerto/dp/0812979680/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Antifragile</a>, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms/dp/0812982401/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">The Bed of Procrustes</a>, and <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Skin-Game-Hidden-Asymmetries-Daily/dp/0425284646/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Skin in the Game</a>), covering broad facets of uncertainty. His work has been published into 49 languages.In addition to his trader life, Taleb has also written, as a backup of the Incerto, more than 70 technical and scholarly papers in mathematical statistics, genetics, quantitative finance, statistical physics, medicine, philosophy, ethics, economics, and international affairs around the notion of risk and probability (grouped in the <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics/dp/B0CD8X5YC5/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Technical Incerto</a>).Taleb is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at NYU's Tandon School of Engineering (retired). His current focus is on the properties of systems that can handle disorder ("antifragile").*Scott Patterson (<a href="https://twitter.com/pattersonscott?lang=en" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@pattersonscott</a>) is an investigative reporter for The Wall Street Journal, currently based in Washington DC, working on climate and energy policy. His new book is <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Chaos-Kings-Street-Traders-Billions/dp/1982179937/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis</a>, a profile of the rise of “black-swan traders,” such as Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel, as well as a survey of the many perils the world faces today—and how we might fix them.Scott has covered everything from Berkshire Hathaway to stock exchanges to high-speed traders to the financial regulators. His first book, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Quants-Whizzes-Conquered-Street-Destroyed/dp/0307453383/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">The Quants</a>, describes the rise of mathematical finance and delves into its role in the 2008 financial blowup. <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Pools-Machine-Traders-Rigging/dp/0307887189/?tag=offsitoftimfe-20" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dark Pools</a>, his second book, tells how computer traders took control of the U.S. stock market, starting from the birth of computer trading in the 1980s to the explosion of high-frequency trading in the late 2000s.*This episode is brought to you by <a href="https://linkedin.com/Tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">LinkedIn Jobs</a>. Whether you are looking to hire now for a critical role or thinking about needs that you may have in the future, <a href="https://linkedin.com/Tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">LinkedIn Jobs</a> can help. LinkedIn screens candidates for the hard and soft skills you’re looking for and puts your job in front of candidates looking for job opportunities that match what you have to offer.Using LinkedIn’s active community of more than 900 million professionals worldwide, <a href="https://linkedin.com/Tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">LinkedIn Jobs</a> can help you find and hire the right person faster. When your business is ready to make that next hire, find the right person with LinkedIn Jobs. And now, you can post a job for free. <a href="https://linkedin.com/Tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Just visit LinkedIn.com/Tim</a>.*This episode is also brought to you by <a href="https://drinkag1.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">AG1</a>! I get asked all the time, “If you could use only one supplement, what would it be?” My answer is usually <a href="https://drinkag1.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">AG1</a>, my all-in-one nutritional insurance. I recommended it in The 4-Hour Body in 2010 and did not get paid to do so. I do my best with nutrient-dense meals, of course, but <a href="https://drinkag1.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">AG1</a> further covers my bases with vitamins, minerals, and whole-food-sourced micronutrients that support gut health and the immune system. Right now, you’ll get a 1-year supply of Vitamin D free with your first subscription purchase—a vital nutrient for a strong immune system and strong bones. Visit <a href="https://drinkag1.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">DrinkAG1.com/Tim</a> to claim this special offer today and receive your 1-year supply of Vitamin D (and 5 free AG1 travel packs) with your first subscription purchase! That’s up to a one-year supply of Vitamin D as added value when you try their delicious and comprehensive daily, foundational nutrition supplement that supports whole-body health.*This episode is also brought to you by <a href="http://helixsleep.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Helix Sleep</a>! Helix was selected as the best overall mattress of 2022 by GQ magazine, Wired, and Apartment Therapy. With <a href="http://helixsleep.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Helix</a>, there’s a specific mattress to meet each and every body’s unique comfort needs. Just take their quiz—<a href="http://helixsleep.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">only two minutes to complete</a>—that matches your body type and sleep preferences to the perfect mattress for you. They have a 10-year warranty, and you get to try it out for a hundred nights, risk-free. They’ll even pick it up from you if you don’t love it. And now, Helix is offering 25% off all mattress orders plus two free pillows at <a href="http://helixsleep.com/tim" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">HelixSleep.com/Tim</a>. The 25% off offer is valid until September 10th.*For show notes and past guests on <a href="https://tim.blog/podcast" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">The Tim Ferriss Show</a>, please visit <a href="https://tim.blog/podcast/?utm_source=podcast&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=podcast-description" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">tim.blog/podcast</a>.For deals from sponsors of <a href="https://tim.blog/podcast" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">The Tim Ferriss Show</a>, please visit <a href="https://tim.blog/podcast-sponsors" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">tim.blog/podcast-sponsors</a>Sign up for Tim’s email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at <a href="https://go.tim.blog/5-bullet-friday-1/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">tim.blog/friday</a>.For transcripts of episodes, go to <a href="https://tim.blog/transcripts" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">tim.blog/transcripts</a>.Discover Tim’s books: <a href="https://tim.blog/books" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">tim.blog/books</a>.Follow Tim:Twitter: <a href="https://twitter.com/tferriss" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">twitter.com/tferriss</a> Instagram: <a href="https://instagram.com/timferriss/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">instagram.com/timferriss</a>YouTube: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/timferriss" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">youtube.com/timferriss</a>Facebook: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/TimFerriss/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">facebook.com/timferriss</a> LinkedIn: <a href="http://linkedin.com/in/timferriss" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">linkedin.com/in/timferriss</a>Past guests on <a href="http://tim.blog/podcast" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">The Tim Ferriss Show</a> include <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/12/08/jerry-seinfeld/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Jerry Seinfeld</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/06/26/hugh-jackman/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Hugh Jackman</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/04/16/jane-goodall/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dr. Jane Goodall</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2018/11/27/lebron-james-mike-mancias/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">LeBron James</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/05/20/kevin-hart/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Kevin Hart</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2018/09/07/doris-kearns-goodwin-leadership/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Doris Kearns Goodwin</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2015/12/06/jamie-foxx/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Jamie Foxx</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/10/19/matthew-mcconaughey/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Matthew McConaughey</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2017/05/21/esther-perel/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Esther Perel</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/05/08/elizabeth-gilbert/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Elizabeth Gilbert</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2017/12/20/terry-crews-how-to-have-do-and-be-all-you-want/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Terry Crews</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/08/12/sia/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Sia</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/10/27/yuval-noah-harari/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Yuval Noah Harari</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2016/06/21/malcolm-gladwell/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Malcolm Gladwell</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/05/27/secretary-madeleine-albright/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Madeleine Albright</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2017/03/30/cheryl-strayed/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Cheryl Strayed</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2019/02/18/jim-collins/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Jim Collins</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/11/11/mary-karr/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Mary Karr,</a> <a href="https://tim.blog/2014/10/21/brain-pickings/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Maria Popova</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/05/15/sam-harris-2/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Sam Harris</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2021/01/21/michael-phelps-grant-hackett/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Michael Phelps</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/01/16/bob-iger/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Bob Iger</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2019/10/31/edward-norton-motherless-brooklyn/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Edward Norton</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2015/02/02/arnold-schwarzenegger/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Arnold Schwarzenegger</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2014/06/24/neil-strauss/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Neil Strauss</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2019/09/12/ken-burns/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Ken Burns</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2017/08/26/maria-sharapova/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Maria Sharapova</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2016/05/29/marc-andreessen/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Marc Andreessen</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2019/03/28/neil-gaiman/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Neil Gaiman</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2019/10/03/neil-degrasse-tyson/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Neil de Grasse Tyson</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2016/09/21/jocko-willink-on-discipline-leadership-and-overcoming-doubt/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Jocko Willink</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/12/03/daniel-ek/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Daniel Ek</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/09/08/kelly-slater/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Kelly Slater</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2019/11/27/peter-attia-fasting-metformin-longevity/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dr. Peter Attia</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2016/02/10/seth-godin/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Seth Godin</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2018/09/25/howard-marks/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Howard Marks</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/02/06/brene-brown-striving-self-acceptance-saving-marriages/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dr. Brené Brown</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2019/04/09/eric-schmidt/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Eric Schmidt</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/05/01/michael-lewis/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Michael Lewis</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2018/03/08/joe-gebbia-co-founder-of-airbnb/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Joe Gebbia</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2018/05/06/michael-pollan-how-to-change-your-mind/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Michael Pollan</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2021/03/01/jordan-peterson/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dr. Jordan Peterson</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2017/05/31/vince-vaughn/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Vince Vaughn</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/04/23/brian-koppelman/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Brian Koppelman</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2019/05/07/ramit-sethi/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Ramit Sethi</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/11/18/dax-shepard/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dax Shepard</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2014/10/15/money-master-the-game/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Tony Robbins</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/05/18/jim-dethmer/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Jim Dethmer</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/11/19/dan-harris/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dan Harris</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2017/09/13/ray-dalio/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Ray Dalio</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2015/08/18/the-evolutionary-angel-naval-ravikant/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Naval Ravikant</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2021/03/08/vitalik-buterin-naval-ravikant/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Vitalik Buterin</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2021/03/16/elizabeth-lesser/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Elizabeth Lesser</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2019/04/18/amanda-palmer-2/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Amanda Palmer</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2021/02/18/katie-haun/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Katie Haun</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2017/10/09/richard-branson/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Sir Richard Branson</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/09/02/chuck-palahniuk/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Chuck Palahniuk</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2017/10/18/arianna-huffington/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Arianna Huffington</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2015/08/31/the-oracle-of-silicon-valley-reid-hoffman-plus-michael-mccullough/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Reid Hoffman</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2017/09/17/bill-burr/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Bill Burr</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2015/06/26/whitney-cummings/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Whitney Cummings</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2015/05/15/rick-rubin/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Rick Rubin</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2020/03/26/vivek-murthy/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dr. Vivek Murthy</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2017/09/09/darren-aronofsky/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Darren Aronofsky</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2022/02/22/margaret-atwood/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Margaret Atwood</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2022/03/24/mark-zuckerberg/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Mark Zuckerberg</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2014/09/09/peter-thiel/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Peter Thiel</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2018/02/20/gabor-mate/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dr. Gabor Maté</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2021/07/09/anne-lamott/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Anne Lamott</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2022/01/12/sarah-silverman/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Sarah Silverman</a>, <a href="https://tim.blog/2021/07/06/andrew-huberman/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Dr. Andrew Huberman</a>, and many more.See Privacy Policy at <a href="https://art19.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://art19.com/privacy</a> and California Privacy Notice at <a href="https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info</a>.

Brought to you by AG1 all-in-one nutritional supplement, Helix Sleep premium mattresses, and LinkedIn Jobs recruitment platform with 900M+ users. Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) spent 21 years as a risk-taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a researcher in philosophical, mathematical, and (mostly) practical problems with probability.Taleb is the author of a multivolume essay, the Incerto (The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, The Bed of Procrustes, and Skin in the Game), covering broad facets of uncertainty. His work has been published into 49 languages.In addition to his trader life, Taleb has also written, as a backup of the Incerto, more than 70 technical and scholarly papers in mathematical statistics, genetics, quantitative finance, statistical physics, medicine, philosophy, ethics, economics, and international affairs around the notion of risk and probability (grouped in the Technical Incerto).Taleb is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at NYU's Tandon School of Engineering (retired). His current focus is on the properties of systems that can handle disorder ("antifragile").*Scott Patterson (@pattersonscott) is an investigative reporter for The Wall Street Journal, currently based in Washington DC, working on climate and energy policy. His new book is Chaos Kings: How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis, a profile of the rise of “black-swan traders,” such as Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel, as well as a survey of the many perils the world faces today—and how we might fix them.Scott has covered everything from Berkshire Hathaway to stock exchanges to high-speed traders to the financial regulators. His first book, The Quants, describes the rise of mathematical finance and delves into its role in the 2008 financial blowup. Dark Pools, his second book, tells how computer traders took control of the U.S. stock market, starting from the birth of computer trading in the 1980s to the explosion of high-frequency trading in the late 2000s.*This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn Jobs. Whether you are looking to hire now for a critical role or thinking about needs that you may have in the future, LinkedIn Jobs can help. LinkedIn screens candidates for the hard and soft skills you’re looking for and puts your job in front of candidates looking for job opportunities that match what you have to offer.Using LinkedIn’s active community of more than 900 million professionals worldwide, LinkedIn Jobs can help you find and hire the right person faster. When your business is ready to make that next hire, find the right person with LinkedIn Jobs. And now, you can post a job for free. Just visit LinkedIn.com/Tim.*This episode is also brought to you by AG1! I get asked all the time, “If you could use only one supplement, what would it be?” My answer is usually AG1, my all-in-one nutritional insurance. I recommended it in The 4-Hour Body in 2010 and did not get paid to do so. I do my best with nutrient-dense meals, of course, but AG1 further covers my bases with vitamins, minerals, and whole-food-sourced micronutrients that support gut health and the immune system. Right now, you’ll get a 1-year supply of Vitamin D free with your first subscription purchase—a vital nutrient for a strong immune system and strong bones. Visit DrinkAG1.com/Tim to claim this special offer today and receive your 1-year supply of Vitamin D (and 5 free AG1 travel packs) with your first subscription purchase! That’s up to a one-year supply of Vitamin D as added value when you try their delicious and comprehensive daily, foundational nutrition supplement that supports whole-body health.*This episode is also brought to you by Helix Sleep! Helix was selected as the best overall mattress of 2022 by GQ magazine, Wired, and Apartment Therapy. With Helix, there’s a specific mattress to meet each and every body’s unique comfort needs. Just take their quiz—only two minutes to complete—that matches your body type and sleep preferences to the perfect mattress for you. They have a 10-year warranty, and you get to try it out for a hundred nights, risk-free. They’ll even pick it up from you if you don’t love it. And now, Helix is offering 25% off all mattress orders plus two free pillows at HelixSleep.com/Tim. The 25% off offer is valid until September 10th.*[09:44] How Scott and Nassim first connected.[12:02] Why Nassim would rather be remembered as a scholar than a trader.[14:01] You can’t forge a new friendship without breaking a few eggs.[16:22] Silent risk, tail events, and one-trick ponies.[25:56] What prompted Scott to write Chaos Kings?[33:41] Pseudo-efficiency, pseudo-optimization, and pseudo-sorries.[36:49] The joy of writing a preemptive resignation letter.[37:39] Developing resilience against criticism.[40:33] Recurring patterns in successful investors.[44:15] Nassim: contrarian, or simply independent?[46:44] Jiving with skeptical turkeys.[51:53] Living in the polycrisis.[53:54] The precautionary principle.[1:00:07] Fat tails, thin tails, and the COVID vaccine.[1:11:03] GMO risks and Monsanto intimidation tactics.[1:14:45] Implementing the precautionary principle at a large scale.[1:16:49] Uncertainty and the climate crisis.[1:19:45] Convexity in the face of financial crisis.[1:27:12] Are investors overpowered in an interconnected world?[1:31:36] Utilizing the precaution principle in the real world (for better and worse).[1:36:53] The flow-on effect of having skin in the game.[1:39:37] The ponzification of startups and an overdue reckoning.[1:42:51] What convexity at the center of all things conveys.[1:49:27] Where to find Scott and Nassim.[1:50:44] What Nassim is working on now.[1:53:37] New insights from ancient words.[1:57:26] Parting thoughts.*For show notes and past guests on The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast.For deals from sponsors of The Tim Ferriss Show, please visit tim.blog/podcast-sponsorsSign up for Tim’s email newsletter (5-Bullet Friday) at tim.blog/friday.For transcripts of episodes, go to tim.blog/transcripts.Discover Tim’s books: tim.blog/books.Follow Tim:Twitter: twitter.com/tferriss Instagram: instagram.com/timferrissYouTube: youtube.com/timferrissFacebook: facebook.com/timferriss LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/timferrissPast guests on The Tim Ferriss Show include Jerry Seinfeld, Hugh Jackman, Dr. Jane Goodall, LeBron James, Kevin Hart, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Jamie Foxx, Matthew McConaughey, Esther Perel, Elizabeth Gilbert, Terry Crews, Sia, Yuval Noah Harari, Malcolm Gladwell, Madeleine Albright, Cheryl Strayed, Jim Collins, Mary Karr, Maria Popova, Sam Harris, Michael Phelps, Bob Iger, Edward Norton, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Neil Strauss, Ken Burns, Maria Sharapova, Marc Andreessen, Neil Gaiman, Neil de Grasse Tyson, Jocko Willink, Daniel Ek, Kelly Slater, Dr. Peter Attia, Seth Godin, Howard Marks, Dr. Brené Brown, Eric Schmidt, Michael Lewis, Joe Gebbia, Michael Pollan, Dr. Jordan Peterson, Vince Vaughn, Brian Koppelman, Ramit Sethi, Dax Shepard, Tony Robbins, Jim Dethmer, Dan Harris, Ray Dalio, Naval Ravikant, Vitalik Buterin, Elizabeth Lesser, Amanda Palmer, Katie Haun, Sir Richard Branson, Chuck Palahniuk, Arianna Huffington, Reid Hoffman, Bill Burr, Whitney Cummings, Rick Rubin, Dr. Vivek Murthy, Darren Aronofsky, Margaret Atwood, Mark Zuckerberg, Peter Thiel, Dr. Gabor Maté, Anne Lamott, Sarah Silverman, Dr. Andrew Huberman, and many more.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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#691: Nassim N. Taleb & Scott Patterson — How Traders Make Billions in The New Age of Crisis, Defending Against Silent Risks, Personal Independence, Skepticism Where It (Really) Counts, The Bishop and The Economist, and Much More

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