Lex Fridman

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#459 – DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

Lex Fridman Podcast

Conversations about science, technology, history, philosophy and the nature of intelligence, consciousness, love, and power. Lex is an AI researcher at MIT and beyond.

Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects.
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep459-sc
See below for timestamps, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.

CONTACT LEX:
Feedback - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey
AMA - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama
Hiring - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring
Other - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact

EPISODE LINKS:
Dylan's X: https://x.com/dylan522p
SemiAnalysis: https://semianalysis.com/
Nathan's X: https://x.com/natolambert
Nathan's Blog: https://www.interconnects.ai/
Nathan's Podcast: https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast
Nathan's Website: https://www.natolambert.com/
Nathan's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert
Nathan's Book: https://rlhfbook.com/

SPONSORS:
To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts:
Invideo AI: AI video generator.
Go to https://invideo.io/i/lexpod
GitHub: Developer platform and AI code editor.
Go to https://gh.io/copilot
Shopify: Sell stuff online.
Go to https://shopify.com/lex
NetSuite: Business management software.
Go to http://netsuite.com/lex
AG1: All-in-one daily nutrition drinks.
Go to https://drinkag1.com/lex

OUTLINE:
(00:00) - Introduction
(13:28) - DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3
(35:02) - Low cost of training
(1:01:19) - DeepSeek compute cluster
(1:08:52) - Export controls on GPUs to China
(1:19:10) - AGI timeline
(1:28:35) - China's manufacturing capacity
(1:36:30) - Cold war with China
(1:41:00) - TSMC and Taiwan
(2:04:38) - Best GPUs for AI
(2:19:30) - Why DeepSeek is so cheap
(2:32:49) - Espionage
(2:41:52) - Censorship
(2:54:46) - Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL
(3:05:17) - OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1
(3:24:25) - NVIDIA
(3:28:53) - GPU smuggling
(3:35:30) - DeepSeek training on OpenAI data
(3:45:59) - AI megaclusters
(4:21:21) - Who wins the race to AGI?
(4:31:34) - AI agents
(4:40:16) - Programming and AI
(4:47:43) - Open source
(4:56:55) - Stargate
(5:04:24) - Future of AI

PODCAST LINKS:
- Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr
- Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
- RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/
- Podcast Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4
- Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/lexclips

Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects. 
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep459-sc">https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep459-sc</a> 
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.
Transcript: 
<a href="https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript">https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript</a>
CONTACT LEX: 
Feedback – give feedback to Lex: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/survey">https://lexfridman.com/survey</a> 
AMA – submit questions, videos or call-in: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/ama">https://lexfridman.com/ama</a> 
Hiring – join our team: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/hiring">https://lexfridman.com/hiring</a> 
Other – other ways to get in touch: <a href="https://lexfridman.com/contact">https://lexfridman.com/contact</a>
EPISODE LINKS: 
Dylan’s X: <a href="https://x.com/dylan522p">https://x.com/dylan522p</a> 
SemiAnalysis: <a href="https://semianalysis.com/">https://semianalysis.com/</a> 
Nathan’s X: <a href="https://x.com/natolambert">https://x.com/natolambert</a> 
Nathan’s Blog: <a href="https://www.interconnects.ai/">https://www.interconnects.ai/</a> 
Nathan’s Podcast: <a href="https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast">https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast</a> 
Nathan’s Website: <a href="https://www.natolambert.com/">https://www.natolambert.com/</a> 
Nathan’s YouTube: <a href="https://youtube.com/@natolambert">https://youtube.com/@natolambert</a> 
Nathan’s Book: <a href="https://rlhfbook.com/">https://rlhfbook.com/</a>
SPONSORS: 
To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: 
Invideo AI: AI video generator. 
Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/invideoai-ep459-sc">https://invideo.io/i/lexpod</a> 
GitHub: Developer platform and AI code editor. 
Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/github-ep459-sc">https://gh.io/copilot</a> 
Shopify: Sell stuff online. 
Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep459-sc">https://shopify.com/lex</a> 
NetSuite: Business management software. 
Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/netsuite-ep459-sc">http://netsuite.com/lex</a> 
AG1: All-in-one daily nutrition drinks. 
Go to <a href="https://lexfridman.com/s/ag1-ep459-sc">https://drinkag1.com/lex</a>
OUTLINE: 
(00:00) – Introduction 
(13:28) – DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3 
(35:02) – Low cost of training 
(1:01:19) – DeepSeek compute cluster 
(1:08:52) – Export controls on GPUs to China 
(1:19:10) – AGI timeline 
(1:28:35) – China’s manufacturing capacity 
(1:36:30) – Cold war with China 
(1:41:00) – TSMC and Taiwan 
(2:04:38) – Best GPUs for AI 
(2:19:30) – Why DeepSeek is so cheap 
(2:32:49) – Espionage 
(2:41:52) – Censorship 
(2:54:46) – Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL 
(3:05:17) – OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1 
(3:24:25) – NVIDIA 
(3:28:53) – GPU smuggling 
(3:35:30) – DeepSeek training on OpenAI data 
(3:45:59) – AI megaclusters 
(4:21:21) – Who wins the race to AGI? 
(4:31:34) – AI agents 
(4:40:16) – Programming and AI 
(4:47:43) – Open source 
(4:56:55) – Stargate 
(5:04:24) – Future of AI

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#459 – DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters

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