Message Heard

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Historie

The 2026 Middle East Forecast

CONFLICTED

An ex-Al Qaeda jihadi turned MI6 spy and a former monk turned filmmaker, have been embedded at the heart of conflicts in the Middle East. Together Aimen Dean and Thomas Small unpack the realities of war, fundamentalism and their global implications through first-hand experience.

What does the future hold for the Middle East — and the world — in 2026?

In this special episode of Conflicted, Thomas instructs Aimen to peer into his crystal ball and offer his forecasts for the year to come.

In this episode, Aimen and Thomas discuss:

How professional geopolitical analysts make forecasts

The impossibility of foreseeing Black Swan events

Why an end to the war in Ukraine could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics

The likelihood of a U.S. war against the Houthis in Yemen

Renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

The strategic importance of the Gulf states

Iran’s nuclear programme, proxy network, and the risk of renewed confrontation

Add your predictions to your 2026 Forecast Card here: https://forms.gle/sMCbRFmFTBdcfEDd8 

Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/ 

Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted

And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted

And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What does the future hold for the Middle East — and the world — in 2026?

In this special episode of Conflicted, Thomas instructs Aimen to peer into his crystal ball and offer his forecasts for the year to come.

In this episode, Aimen and Thomas discuss:

 How professional geopolitical analysts make forecasts

 The impossibility of foreseeing Black Swan events

 Why an end to the war in Ukraine could reshape Middle Eastern geopolitics

 The likelihood of a U.S. war against the Houthis in Yemen

 Renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

 The strategic importance of the Gulf states

 Iran’s nuclear programme, proxy network, and the risk of renewed confrontation

Add your predictions to your 2026 Forecast Card here: https://forms.gle/sMCbRFmFTBdcfEDd8 

Join the Conflicted Community here: https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/ 

Find us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MHconflicted

And Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted

And Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conflicted is a Message Heard production.

Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren.

Produced by Thomas Small and edited by Lizzy Andrews.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The 2026 Middle East Forecast

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